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The three elements that drive a county's population are births, deaths and net immigration (immigration less emmigration). Clear statistics are not always available for these three elements. The number of births and deaths is relatively well known for recent years although historically births were underregistered. In 1940 an estimated 18.7% of all births were unregistered, with fewer births being registered in the rural areas. As recently as 1966 an estimated 3% of all births were not registered in Georgia. The following estimates of birth registrations are from the Georgia Division of Public Health's Vital Statistics documents.
| year | 1940 | 1950 | 1955 | 1960 | 1965 |
| % registered | 81.3% | 94.6% | 96.2% | 96.7% | 96.9% |
It is easy to assume that the population count is well known due to the decennial census and the intercensal estimates. This is moderately true for decennial census counts up to and including 1980. However, due to Hispanic cultural hinderances with the decennial census and the recent Hispanic migration into Hall County the total population count and the number of net immigrants from 1990 onward is not well known. The growth model is using the census population counts for 1950 through 1980 as fact. The 1990 census population count is adjusted by the official Census 2.4% estimate of the undercount. The 2000 census population count is adjusted by 13,621, the growth model's estimate of the Hispanic undercount documented here.
| Year | 1950 | 1960 | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 2000 |
| Unadjusted | 40,113 | 49,739 | 59,405 | 75,649 | 95,428 | 139,277 |
| Adjusted | 40,113 | 49,739 | 59,405 | 75,649 | 97,685 | 152,898 |
| CDC Census | - | - | 59,925 | 76,102 | 95,981 | 139,277 |
Births, deaths, and net immigrants are often expressed as rates per 1000. Birth rates are usually expressed as births per 100 women of child bearing age. The crude birth rate is the number of births per 1000 of the total population. Because the growth model does not break down the population into gender and age specific brackets it uses the crude birth rate.
| Year | 1951 | 1960 | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 |
| Births | 1,042 | 1,213 | 1,203 | 1,197 | - | 2,230/2,304 | - | 2,517 | 2,882 | 2,879 |
| Birth Rate | 25.4 | 24.3 | 20.2 | 15.8 | - | - | - | - | 18.8 | - |
| Deaths | 263 | 389 | 484 | 567/570 | 714 | 895/897 | 910/909 | 969 | 1,000 | 1,012 |
| Death Rate | 6.4 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 7.3 | - | - | - | 6.9 | - |
Death rates for Hall County from 1979 through 1998 from CDC's WONDER compressed mortality data tables notes death rates from 7.4 to 8.2 with an upward swing of the rates occurring in the 1990s. However, the rates are from unadjusted population counts. A moving average of the death rate up to the 1990s hovers around 7.5.
The rates that drive future population growth are birth, death, and immigration rates. These projected rates may be set by the user. Those provided by default represent one possible scenario, but others can, and should, be studied by the user.
The extreme skew of the birth to death ratio for the Hispanic population is indicative of the adult age composition bias to reproductive age adults. Combined with the Hispanic cultural bias towards larger families the expectation is the high birth rate will continue for another decade. The subsequent baby boom will pulse through the population with elevated birth rates one generation later.
The second generation Hispanics will be caught between their parent's cultural expectation for larger families and the background culture's smaller family size model. Third generation Hispanics may be expected to be assimilated and match then current background family sizes.
The background culture will continue its current drift towards a replacement birth rate. Because of our mix of rural, Southern, and American culture, this drift towards a replacement birth rate is not as rapid as is found in an urban European culture.
This model assumes the immigrant Hispanics remain in our community to die and the death rate rises as the population ages.
Bedroom and retirement households will continue to immigrate into Hall County while the current quality of life is maintained. Two obvious quality of life limiters are land and water. When we we run out of land or water the pace of bedroom and retirement immigration will drop off. This model does not use a feedback loop to lower the immigration rate but it does flag the year when we run out of land or water for the predicted attributes that drive the land and water limitations.
The projected Hispanic immigration rates are the most difficult to predict.
Given that we have a strong adult male bias among the Hispanic community
it is reasonable to expect continued immigration of their families.
Anecdotal evidence indicates that the Hispanic community is now growing
less from male laborers immigrating and more from prior labor immigrant's
families and parents.
The 1985 Georgia County Guide predicted Hall County's population would grow to 97,906 in 2000. In fact it grew to well over 139,277 and the earlier forecast was off by more than 42%. The earlier prediction missed both the Hispanic immigration and the magnitude of the bedroom community pushing up into south Hall.
This growth model for Hall County is best used as an education tool
to understand the factors that will drive and limit Hall County's
population growth. It is guaranteed that there will be surprises
during this century. But the limitations posed by water and land
should not be among them.
June 10, 2003
MetaMedia, Inc.
Heitzso
Nancy G. Harden
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